It's my inaugural entry on Greg Wille Sports, and I'm ready to debut with a bold prediction: Tiger Woods will win the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black.OK, so that's really not going out on a limb, because Woods is the favorite whenever and wherever he tees it up.
He has won 14 major professional championships, an astounding 11 more than his next-closest current competitors (Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh).
Woods not only captured last year's U.S. Open at Torrey Pines (on a wrecked-but-since-repaired knee, no less) but also won the last Open played at brutal Bethpage, outdueling New York crowd favorite Mickelson in 2002.
And Tiger comes back to the Black following his brilliant final-round 65 -- hitting all 14 fairways in an uncanny performance -- to prevail two weeks ago at the Memorial, Jack Nicklaus's tournament.
Woods is today's Nicklaus, and there remains a wide gap between Tiger and any other real and/or potential rival.
Mickelson is the top challenger and normally would be a great pick to win, but Lefty's never won the U.S. Open and he's not sharp enough to be the best at Bethpage after stepping away from the PGA Tour to help his wife deal with her breast cancer diagnosis.
Geoff Ogilvy has all the game in the world and a U.S. Open victory (in 2006, when Phil and everyone else choked at Winged Foot), but the smooth Australian needs to prove whether he's a multiple-major champion.
And then there are the other usual suspects.
Where's Harrington been this year after winning the final two majors of 2008? Trying to fix a game that didn't have much wrong with it. We're still waiting for Els and Singh to recapture their past glory, but their best days most likely are behind them.
Two-time U.S. Open champion Retief Goosen could re-emerge as a threat, but I'd be surprised if he's in the mix come late Sunday afternoon. Jim Furyk is a former Open champ, an accurate driver, a skilled putter and is playing well, but the Black (as the warning sign at the first tee attests) is too much course for him.
How about long-suffering Sergio Garcia breaking through at Bethpage to win his first major? He's a tremendous ball striker but his putting and final-round nerves are problematic, so I'll borrow a quote from Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen to assess the Spaniard's chances: "Pssst . . . please."
Of course, there's always the possibility that some unheralded, off-the-radar player will step up, tame the brutal Black course (a par-70 beast at more than 7,400 yards) and slay Tiger along with the other big guns. Remember, such immortals as Steve Jones and Michael Campbell have won the U.S. Open in the last 15 years. Heck, Lee Janzen won the Open twice.
This year, however, no journeyman or short knocker will conquer Bethpage Black. It's Tiger's tournament to win if he plays his game. He knows it, and the other 155 players know it.
That's not to say any major championship can simply be handed to a player, regardless of the course and how well he's playing. Consider that Woods has won the Masters only three times (only?) since he steamrolled Augusta National in 1997 and seemed like he'd own the place for the next two decades.
But everything is lined up for Woods to win his second U.S. Open at Bethpage, his fourth Open overall and, perhaps most important, his 15th major -- just four short of breaking Nicklaus's hallowed record that Tiger has spent his amazing career chasing.
Expect livelier, more-out-there predictions in future posts on Greg Wille Sports. For now, though, you heard it here first (or maybe 384th): Tiger Woods will win the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black.
Until next time, thanks for reading.
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